Human Resource Forecasting

lihat post sebelumnya pada human resource planning

• Process of projecting the organization’s future HR needs (demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a given set of assumptions about the organization’s policies and the environmental conditions in which it operates.
• Without forecasting cannot assess the disparity between supply and demand  nor how effective an HR program is in reducing the disparity.

Forecasting as a Part of HRP

Internal Supply Forecasting Information

• Organizational features (e.g., staffing capabilities)
• Productivity - rates of productivity, productivity changes
• Rates of promotion, demotion, transfer and turnover

External Supply Forecasting Information

• External labor market factors (retirements, mobility, education, unemployment)
• Controllable company factors on external factors (entry-level openings, recruiting, compensation)

Demand Forecasting Information

• Organizational and unit strategic plans
• Size of organization
• Staff and Managerial Support
• Organizational design

Considerations in Establishing a Forecasting System

• How sophisticated
• Appropriate time frame
• Subjective versus objective forecasting methods

System Sophistication

• Organizational sizelarge organizations require more complex forecasting systems and likely to have the required skilled staff
• Organizational complexity complex career paths and diverse skill requirements lead to more complex forecasting systems
• Organizational objectivesthe greater the gap between current HR situation and desired HR situation the more sophisticated the system
• Organizational plans and strategiesthe complex the plans are the more complex the forecasting system

Forecasting Time Frame

Depends on degree of environmental uncertainty

• Factors creating uncertainty (shortening time frame)
• many new competitors, changes in technology, changes in social, political and economic climate, unstable product demand
• Factors promoting stability (longer time frame)
• strong competitive position, slowly developing technology, stable product demand. 

Subjective VS.  Objective Forecasting

Objective is inappropriate when:

• Lack expertise to use objective methods
• Lack the historical data or HR data base is  inadequate
• Forecasting horizon is too long for the available objective method

Demand Forecasting Methods

• Delphi Method
• Staffing Table Approach
• Regression Analysis
• Time Series Analysis
• Linear Programming
• Skills Inventory
• Replacement Charts
• Succession Planning
• Flow Modeling/Markov Analysis
• Computer Simulations