Silaby of Probability Theory - 5 : Bayes theorem

1.	Faculty /Study Program	: MIPA/Mathematics Education
2.	Subject & Code	: Probability Theory, MAA 317
3.	The number of SKS	: Theory : 2 sks  Practice : 1 sks
4.	Semester and Duration	: IV, Duration : 100 minutes
5.	Based Competency	: To understand Bayes theorem
6.	Achievement Indicator	:

a)   Student can explain Bayes theorem

b)  Student can solve probability problem related to Bayes theorem

7.  Material                                          : Bayes theorem

8.  Lecture Activity                             : 5

  

Step Component	Activity	Duration	Method	Media	References
Introduction	Explain briefly the conditional probability	20'	Discussion    and Exercise	LCD, white/black board	A: 1-30 B: 25-54
Main Activities	1. Explain Bayes theorem 2. Do exercise and discuss the Results	60'
Closing Activity	Conclude the entire materials and give tasks	10'
Further Activities	Invite the students to ask or give an opinion about the materials	10'

11. Evaluation

The evaluation is performed based on the student activities in discussion, doing exercise.

12. Reference

A.  Bain, Lee J. & Engelhardt, Max. 1992. Introduction to Probability and Mathematical

Statistics. Belmont: Duxbury Press.

B.  Ross, Sheldon M. 1998. A First Course in Probability. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.