Silaby of Elementary Statistics - 12 : the concepts of conditional probability, independent event, and Bayes theorem

1.	Faculty /Study Program	: MIPA/Mathematics Education
2.	Subject & Code	: Elementary Statistics, MAA 306
3.	The number of SKS	: Theory : 2 sks  Practice : 1 sks
4.	Semester and Duration	: II, Duration : 100 minutes
5.	Based Competency	: Understanding the concepts of conditional probability,

independent event, and Bayes theorem

6.  Achievement Indicator                             :

a)  Student can explain the concepts of conditional probability, independent event, and Bayes theorem

b)  Student solve probability problem by conditional probability, independent event and Bayes theorem

7.  Material                                         : Conditional probability, independent event, and Bayes theorem

8.  Lecture Activity                            : 12

Step Component	Activity	Duration	Method	Media	References
Introduction	Explain briefly the material of probability	20’	Discussion    and Exercise	LCD, white/black board	A: 118-176 B: 181-243
Main Activities	1.  Explain      the      concept      of conditional probability 2.  Explain     the     definition     of independent event 3.  Explain Bayes theorem 4.  Do   exercise   and   discuss   the results	60’
Closing Activity	Conclude the entire materials and give tasks	10’
Further Activities	Invite the students to ask or give an opinion about the materials	10’

9.   Evaluation

The evaluation is performed based on the student activities in discussion, doing exercise.

10. References

A.  Triola, Mario F. 2004. Elementary Statistics. New York: Addison-Wesley.

B.  Weiss, Neil A. 1995. Introductory to Statistics. New York: Addison-Wesley.